Ref: Delaware communities plan evacuation routes using tourist season experience

| 01.03.2007 | 06:42:584767 |

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Del. preps for worst-case storm scenario
State's new evacuation plan in place for Sussex County

By MOLLY MURRAY, The News Journal
Posted Tuesday, January 2, 2007
A friend once told Kathy Dodson she wouldn't live any place that has those blue and white signs labeled: Evacuation Route.

But for Dodson and her husband Ray, "the call of the ocean is strong." So strong, in fact, that the Reedsville, Pa., couple bought a second home at Pot-Nets Seaside this summer and hope to eventually retire there.

The couple are among a growing number who plan to make Sussex County their year-round home.

With such growth in the county, as well as its popularity as a tourist destination, state officials are searching for ways to reach everyone who could be affected by a new evacuation plan.

The plan, created by state transportation officials, points out the strengths and weaknesses in the existing road system, where traffic bottlenecks could occur, and coordinates evacuation efforts among state and local agencies.

"When the rain starts is not the time to start building the ark," said Gary Lang, a spokesman with the Delaware Department of Transportation.

The plan has been in the works for several years, long before Hurricane Katrina exposed weaknesses in state, local and national preparedness, and even before 9/11, Lang said.

State officials wanted to make sure they had a transportation plan in place that would work in most catastrophes, from a hurricane to a chemical leak or act of terrorism.

One of the first priorities, though, has been to come up with a comprehensive plan for Sussex County that is mostly geared to coastal storms and hurricanes.

"We needed a traffic management plan," Lang said.

The Sussex County document will be used as a guide for similar plans being developed in Kent and New Castle counties, Lang said.

Each of the three counties presents different challenges during an emergency evacuation.

Among the concerns for Sussex County are the traffic volumes at the beach and the number of people who visit from out of town. The area is different from other parts of Delaware because many people are visitors who may not monitor radio or television broadcasts while on vacation.

How to notify visitors of emergencies in a timely fashion and how to prevent people who haven't arrived from heading to the beach are key issues in Sussex, Lang said.

"It's not enough to say these roads are going to be evacuation routes," he said.

The plan does detail the routes, however. For instance, people in Fenwick Island and North Ocean City, Md., would be routed west on Del. 54 toward Selbyville. Those in South Bethany and Bethany beaches would take Del. 26 west toward Dagsboro and those from Dewey Beach north to Lewes would be routed north on Del. 1. Lewes evacuees could also be routed west toward Georgetown on U.S. 9.

In all, as many as 56,000 vehicles would need to be evacuated in a short time. Fortunately, state transportation officials have experience moving thousands of people in a matter of hours.

"Twice a year, we essentially evacuate a city," with the two NASCAR races in Dover, Lang said. "A lot of lessons we've learned from that can be applied" if there is a need to evacuate other areas. "We have learned some things about moving vehicles."

And with resort areas, where many people are visitors and have a home to return to elsewhere, the evacuation becomes easier, he said.

Lang said any evacuation decision needs to be made at least 36 hours before a storm hits.

Transportation officials used a travel model to determine evacuation times from key coastal evacuation routes. Del. 54, for instance, would have a potential summer evacuation traffic volume of between 22,000 and 45,000 vehicles and would take as long as 25 hours to evacuate and clear.

Del. 1 would have a similar traffic volume but would take 12.5 to 16.25 hours to clear.

The model makes some assumptions: a constant traffic flow and a best-case scenario.

But in reality, transportation officials acknowledge that there would be "a surge of demand and traffic levels would approach gridlock."

The study suggests that evacuation times would be double those predicted in the model and even more time would be needed if one or more of the evacuation routes were closed.

The study pointed to potential congestion areas at Georgetown and Bridgeville, Milford and Little Heaven, and in northern Delaware along I-95.

Because of the traffic uncertainty, Jamie Turner, director of the Delaware Emergency Management Agency, said he would like even more lead time for evacuation -- as much as 72 hours.

But such a large window could be a challenge for planners because a major hurricane could be distant from the Delmarva coast.

Turner, who likes to plan for the worst case, looks at what could happen if a major hurricane hit land on a holiday weekend such as July 4 or Labor Day.

In such a scenario, Delaware would not be the only area planning an evacuation. Visitors in Chincoteague, Va., and Ocean City, Md., would probably also be asked to leave.

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